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Cryptic
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Redirects in the main namespace with titles containing any of "2020 Olympics", "2020 Summer Olympics", "2020 Paralympics", "2020 Summer Paralympics", or "Tokyo 2020" (case insensitive); where there isn't another redirect pointing at the same target, with the same title as the first redirect except "2021" instead of "2020". For [[WP:VPT#Missing "2021 Olympics" redirects]] circa 25 Jul 2021.
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SQL
SELECT page_title FROM page AS p1 JOIN redirect r1 ON r1.rd_from = p1.page_id WHERE p1.page_namespace = 0 AND p1.page_title RLIKE '(?i)(2020_(Summer_)?(O|Para)lympics|Tokyo_2020)' AND NOT EXISTS (SELECT 1 FROM redirect AS r2 JOIN page AS p2 ON p2.page_id = rd_from WHERE r2.rd_namespace = r1.rd_namespace AND r2.rd_title = r1.rd_title AND p2.page_namespace = 0 AND p2.page_title = REPLACE(p1.page_title, '2020', '2021'));
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